Joshua Yaphe
Much of the commentary coming out of think tanks and news outlets over the last week has been limited in scope and vision, often focusing on public attitudes in Israel, the prospects for reviving a two-state solution, and the potential for yet more escalation. The limited horizon of expectations derives in part from the fact that fighting is ongoing and outside observers are still caught up in the ever-changing battlefield dynamics. That is logical.
Another reason for the narrow lens of analysis is that Israeli prime minister Netanyahu has consistently caught everyone else off-guard in terms of his risk tolerance and advance planning, leaving the experts to play catch-up in their assessments at every stage. That, too, is understandable. A third reason for the tunnel vision is that the war has had rather little impact on domestic politics and economics in most of the region.
Algeria and Tunisia held presidential elections and returned Presidents Tebboune and Saied, respectively, to office. The opposition in both cases was largely excluded from the polls by the countries’ electoral commissions, ending in court cases in Tunisia for over a dozen candidates brought up on spurious charges of falsifying endorsement signatures.
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