John V. Parachini
In a bold move, Ukrainian forces advanced into the Kursk region of Russia, creating new dynamics on the battlefield. This operation, while potentially a game-changing move by Ukraine, could lead to escalation, including increased Russian use of chemical weapons.
While Ukraine controls 500 square miles of Russian territory, there is no guarantee that the offensive will prove decisive, and it could weaken Ukraine's position on the eastern front in the Donbas. Russia has rushed at least 30,000 additional troops to the Kursk region to counter Ukraine's advance is worrying, but predictable. Moscow's willingness to throw waves of troops against the frontline regardless of the casualty rates poses a serious challenge to Ukraine to hold its gains in Kursk and not have its defenses buckle at other points along the frontline.
Might Ukraine's seizure of Russian territory provoke Moscow to escalate its response and use nuclear weapons? Earlier this month Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said Russia will revise its nuclear doctrine in response to, “recent conflicts, including … our Western adversaries' escalation course in regards to the special military operations.”
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