13 October 2024

The Israel-Iran War Enters A New Stage – Analysis

Can Kasapoğlu

What Happened?

On October 1, 2024, the Islamic Republic of Iran unleashed a large salvo of nearly 200 ballistic missiles against Israel.

Iran’s attack came only five days after Israel conducted strikes to eliminate several high-ranking officials of the Iran-backed proxy terror group Hezbollah—most notably late Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah. Israel’s strike also killed General Abbas Nilforoushan, the former deputy of operations for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and Muhammad Ja’far Kasir, the chief of Hezbollah’s Unit 4400, a special body tasked with overseeing weapons transfers between the proxy network and Tehran. Iran’s strike also coincided with the Israel Defense Forces’ initiation of limited ground operations in Lebanon.

The Strategy and Concepts of Operations behind the Attack

In its April 13 attacks against Israel, Iran unleashed a mixed strike package of drones alongside cruise and ballistic missiles. This offensive configuration complicated Israel’s efforts to defend its skies, as sensors have greater difficulty tracking slow-moving drones and dealing with ground clutter. But the slower projectiles also gave the Israeli Defense Forces hours of notice before Tehran’s more powerful missiles neared their targets. The early warning made it all but impossible for Tehran to maintain the element of surprise during the April strike.

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