Ilan Berman
Israel Mulls Its Iran Options: With considerable trepidation, the Middle East, and indeed the wider world, is awaiting Israel’s response to Iran’s massive October 1st missile barrage on the Jewish state. The White House, fearful of a wider regional war, is exerting massive (albeit mostly quiet) pressure for Jerusalem to limit its retaliation to something “proportionate” that doesn’t target either Iran’s nuclear program or its energy sites.
Israel’s own calculations are complex. Clearly, doing nothing is not an option, insofar as it would enshrine a deeply dangerous status quo – one in which Iran’s ayatollahs feel emboldened to carry out more direct attacks without worry of reprisal. A too-weak Israeli response would have the same problem, failing to sufficiently deter Tehran from further aggression. But a more serious effort targeting Iran’s oil infrastructure risks driving up global energy prices, while meaningfully impacting Iran’s extensive nuclear program is a massively complex endeavor.
Another factor is also in play, though, and it might end up proving decisive in shaping how Israel’s ultimately responds.That is a growing conviction among Israeli observers and analysts that we are now on the precipice of an Iranian “sprint” for the bomb.
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