Nikolas K. Gvosdev
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky has met with President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris in what might prove to be the moment of decision since Russia initiated major combat operations inside Ukraine over 900 days ago.
Numerous clocks are now ticking. Can Ukraine’s military hold its defensive lines in eastern Ukraine? Can the Russian military bring to bear concentrated force to crack Ukrainian defenses before the winter? Will the U.S. and other NATO allies permit Ukraine to use the weapons systems they provide to strike deeper into Russia? Can the Western defense industrial complex get enough equipment into the Ukraine supply pipeline in a timely fashion? Last but not least, who will win the U.S. presidential election and be inaugurated in January 2025?
Aware of these looming deadlines, the Zelensky hopes that the United States and its partners will stop these clocks. The theory of victory is based on two assumptions. First, Russia cannot sustain its efforts for the long term, and sufficient disruption of the Kremlin’s capabilities will bring the Russians to the table to negotiate. Second, if the West commits to a rapid and major resupply effort for the Ukrainian military, accompanied by robust security guarantees, the Russians will be forced to recognize they cannot overwhelm Ukraine in a war of attrition.
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