Martin Mitchell
The Falklands War of 1982 holds several modern geopolitical and tactical precedents that apply to a potential conflict between China and the United States over Taiwan. In both cases, the contested islands are located near a continental nation-state aimed at reunifying such islands to the mainland, despite long periods passing wherein the island residents either aligned with an over-the-horizon maritime power possessing a representative form of government and/or developed indigenous democratic institutions.
The successful British intervention in the Falklands not only rekindled a sense of national pride but served as a catalyst for elevating the importance of the United Kingdom as a player on the world stage where incipient economic globalization and a protracted Cold War dominated the scene. For the Falkland Islanders, the right to self-determination was secured and later affirmed in a 2013 referendum when alignment with the U.K. was chosen by over 99 percent of the voters.
For the United States, a successful intervention against China (either alone or in coalition with others) in the Taiwan Strait would thwart China’s efforts to usurp the U.S. as the leading world power and allow Taiwanese to define their future as they see fit.
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