Dr. Mohamed ELDoh
On October 10, 2024, the leaders of Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia solidified their regional alliance, with a focus on countering Ethiopia’s influence in the Horn of Africa. The trilateral summit marked a significant development in the geopolitics of Eastern Africa, particularly in light of Ethiopia’s increasingly assertive actions in the region, such as its recent naval port deal with Somaliland in January 2024. The establishment of what appears to be an anti-Ethiopian alliance will have critical implications for the region’s security landscape, where the three nations are seeking to leverage their combined diplomatic and military efforts to curb Ethiopia’s ambitions.
These ambitions center around an interest in increasing its naval capabilities and, critically, Ethiopia gaining direct access to the Red Sea – a prospect that has long been a source of concern for Egypt, Somalia, and Eritrea, all of which have tended to view Ethiopia’s economic and military developments through a national security lens influenced by their own circumstance.
For Egypt, the overriding bilateral concern is a water conflict centered on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), a mega-project that has an almost existential significance for Cairo in that it risks disrupting the Nile River’s flow and negatively impacting Egyptian agriculture and freshwater resources.
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