Carlo J.V. Caro
Since April, President Biden’s public assurances—stating that the United States would not join Israel in a military response to the initial Iranian aerial attacks, and more recently his statements that he would not support an Israeli counterattack on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure—mark a critical departure from the core principles of deterrence. Deterrence is not merely about wielding overwhelming force but about creating an environment of uncertainty and fear in the minds of adversaries. Historically, successful deterrence has thrived on ambiguity—the calculated uncertainty that prevents enemies from predicting the consequences of their actions. Yet, under Biden’s administration, this essential principle is eroding through public declarations, particularly toward Iran. This shift threatens to dismantle a carefully maintained balance, with potentially far-reaching consequences for the U.S., Israel, and the global order.
The Middle East, a region historically fraught with sectarian rivalries, territorial disputes, and the constant specter of conflict, has long relied on a delicate balance of power maintained by external actors, primarily the United States. For decades, U.S. ambiguity regarding its military involvement in the region served as a check on Tehran's nuclear ambitions. This ambiguity kept Iran in a perpetual state of caution, never quite certain how the U.S. or Israel might respond to further nuclear development.
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