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5 October 2024

The Big Five - 27 September edition

Mick Ryan

We continue to live in interesting times. Here is my (long) update on Ukraine, the Middle East and the Pacific, as well as my top five recommended readings for this week.

The Russo-Ukraine War

Five key topics dominate reports on the war in Ukraine and Russia this week.

First, the Ukrainians have conducted strikes on at least three major Russian munitions storage depots. I wrote about these strikes in a piece earlier this week. Stocks of S300 and S400 missiles were among the stocks destroyed, as well as munitions provided by North Korea. While the effects of these attacks are not certain, it is possible they will restrict the supply of some natures of ammunition to Russian forces in Ukraine. An estimate from Estonian military intelligence noted that the destruction at the Russian munition depots would have an impact on Russian operations over the coming months.

A second topic of focus this week has been the ongoing Ukrainian campaign in Kursk. The Russian counter attack appears to have gained some ground in the western parts of the Ukrainian salient, however the tempo of this counter attack has slowed significantly. The Ukrainian incursion to the west of where the Russian counter attacked has potentially compromised the flank security of the Russians, and reportedly has cutoff hundreds of Russian troops.

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