The Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Treaty is ‘Within Reach’ but Out of Grasp

Vasif Huseynov

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September 2024 marks the fourth anniversary of the Second Karabakh War (September 27–November 10, 2020), as well as the first anniversary of Azerbaijan’s “anti-terror operation” against the Armenian separatist contingency in the Karabakh region on September 19–20, 2023 (see EDM, September 28, December 14, 2020, September 20, 28, October 4, 2023). As a result of these two military incidents, Armenia and Azerbaijan are drafting a peace treaty in an effort to reconcile the longtime adversaries. The basis for negotiations were proposals put forward by Azerbaijan in March 2022, centered around key principles such as the recognition of each other’s territorial integrity and the non-use of force (see EDM, April 14, 2022, January 24, April 15, May 21, July 9). “Today … peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan is not only possible but within reach,” said Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan optimistically on September 26 at the 79th session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York City (Primeminister.am, September 26). Yet, both Pashinyan and Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov at the UNGA acknowledged the significant challenges that remain. While the treaty could be within reach, it may still be out of grasp.

Baku remains highly steadfast in its demand that Armenia should remove territorial claims against Azerbaijan before the two countries can sign a peace treaty (see EDM, June 25). “The Armenian people should constitutionally declare an end to their utopian claims of uniting Karabakh with Armenia and express their intention to live in peace with Azerbaijan,” said Hikmat Hajiyev, foreign policy adviser to the Azerbaijani president on September 18 (Report.az, September 18). Bayramov argued that the “pain and [suffering] inflicted by irredentism and territorial claims” make it imperative for Azerbaijan to seek assurances that revanchist forces in Armenia will not revive hostilities, during his speech to the UNGA (Mfa.gov.az, September 29). Although Pashinyan acknowledged the need for a constitutional change in Armenia earlier this year, this seems unlikely to happen before 2027 (see EDM, June 25).