Monte Erfourth
Introduction
As the Middle East experiences yet another protracted conflict, the Biden administration’s strategy—or lack thereof—regarding Israel’s strikes on Hezbollah is puzzling. Iran’s long-term investment in proxy forces such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis has created a well-oiled machine for regional disruption. This shadow war is designed to degrade Israel’s military, distract its leadership, and prevent a full focus on Tehran’s broader ambitions. The October 7, 2023, attack by Hamas, this past year-long barrage of over 8,000 missile strikes from Hezbollah, and shipping attacks by the Houthis appear to be part of a broader strategy to weaken Israel by overwhelming its defenses. Iran claims that the proxies they helped train, fund, arm, and support acted on their own. While there is evidence to support Iran’s attempts to call off proxy activities, they remain responsible for setting the conditions for violence evidenced across the region.
The Biden administration has responded with cautious diplomacy, pushing for de-escalation and peace negotiations that, at this point, seem destined to return the region to a fragile and unsustainable status quo. At the same time, Iran finishes its nuclear weapons programs. The strategic imperative, however, should be clear: Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, as extensions of Iran’s offensive capabilities, must be severely degraded if there is any hope of lasting peace in the region. This would necessitate destroying Iran’s nuclear capability as well. This moment, however fraught, presents a critical opportunity to reshape the Middle East’s balance of power by reducing Iran's proxy forces to irrelevance, denying Iran the nuclear threat, and paving the way for a new and more favorable regional order.
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