Mikhail Troitskiy
Russia’s war against Ukraine has exposed significant flaws in the design and execution of its military operations. Some analysts argue that the Russian military will emerge from the war seriously weakened, unable to afford another campaign against its neighbors or other countries. However, other observers characterize the Russian military as adaptable and capable of not only altering operational tactics during the war but also identifying strategic opportunities for future operations based on observations of adversary behavior.
While Russia’s operational capabilities after the war will largely depend on the condition of its army, navy, and air force, its capacity to carry out new operations is likely to be significantly enhanced thanks to the extensive experience gained during the conflict in Ukraine.
One of the strategic insights Russia, and possibly China, India, and others, may have gleaned is the cautious response by major Western powers to Russia’s aggressive territorial expansion under the umbrella of nuclear deterrence. Although various effective tactics may offset the conventional advantages of large military fighting near its borders, like Russia in Ukraine or potentially China in Taiwan, the role of nuclear weapons in shielding expansionist actions has proven more significant than previously believed.
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