Daniel Kochis
Russia is a Specter that Will Haunt the West for the Foreseeable Future: Once the artillery and glide bombs stop falling in Ukraine, Russia will still pose a significant threat to the West. How much of a threat depends upon how the war ends.
When the fighting stops Russia will retain a sizeable population, albeit with deep demographic issues, substantial capabilities, and most damningly, an unbridled imperial mindset.
Putin has been willing to sacrifice an appalling number of human lives and large-scale loss of equipment to continue to prosecute the war against Ukraine. Yes, the depleting of Soviet stocks and Russia’s reliance upon North Korean shells and now, soldiers to shore up its flagging military, to say nothing of its dependence on China and Iran, isn’t exactly a show of strength.
Yet, despite these weaknesses, the Russian military grinds on. Rosy projections about future Russian capacity to wage war from earlier in the full-scale war have fallen aside to more sobering recent analysis. Just this week NATO SACEUR General Christopher G. Cavoli remarked, “At the end of the war in Ukraine, no matter how it looks, the Russian army will be stronger than it is today. These forces will be on the border of our alliance. They are commanded by the same people who already see us as enemies and will later be dissatisfied with the way the war went. So we will have an opponent with real skills, a mass of troops, and clear intentions."
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