Pavel K. Baev
Escalation over the last year of the decades-long conflict in the Middle East has exposed the near-total disappearance of Russian influence from the region. Historically, Moscow excelled at exploiting outbreaks of regional violence and was poorly equipped for promoting peace processes. In the current fast-moving crisis, however, Russia has not been able to partner with those who oppose US positions. The only feeble signal from the Kremlin in recent days was a statement of “serious concern” by Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, who described the possibility of Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities in Iran as unacceptable (RIA Novosti, October 3). Former US President Donald Trump, however, who has praised Russian President Vladimir Putin and his regime, suggested worrying about the consequences of a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities after the destruction (Rossiiskaya Gazeta, October 5). Russia is desperately trying to maintain its position in the world, which is dwindling due to its war in Ukraine. Its meager efforts to influence the situation in the Middle East highlight the reputational damage it has sustained among global powers.
Previously, Syria was Russia’s main bastion in the Middle East, but Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s abbreviated visit to the Kremlin in July of 2023 illustrated Damascus’ weakening dependency on Moscow and Tehran as the pivotal source of support (see EDM, November 27, 2023, July 29; Kommersant, July 25). Russia’s military command has no knowledge about, nor control over, the supply of Iranian arms to Assad’s regime, and Russian media is only capable of circulating basic reports, such as one covering Israeli strikes on a smuggling tunnel under the Syrian-Lebanese border (Interfax, October 4). This is in contrast to Israel’s strike on Russia’s Khmeimim airbase on October 3, which was hardly reported on. Only a few “patriotic” bloggers dared to clarify that the target was an Iranian munitions storage facility, not the Russian base itself. The facility, constructed close to the perimeter of the airbase, was destroyed, while the expectation that Russian surface-to-air systems would intercept the incoming missiles was not met (News.ru, October 3).
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