James Crabtree & Alexander Lipke
Which nation is Russia’s most significant military partner in its war with Ukraine? Speaking at a conference in Kyiv in September, Ukraine’s military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov gave a clear, if perhaps unexpected, answer: North Korea. Or, as Budanov put it: “North Korea would be first. Then there is no one for a long time, and then everyone else.”
The scale of North Korean aid to Russia remains striking. Since the war began, supreme leader Kim Jong Un has dispatched an estimated 6m artillery shells, providing Vladimir Putin with a clear battlefield advantage. Yet Budanov’s claim highlights a broader development in which both North and South Korea are playing an ever-more strategically significant role in European security affairs. Pyongyang’s importance was underlined in June when Putin visited to seek further weapons. Meanwhile, Seoul has sent aid to Ukraine and joined economic sanctions against Moscow. To respond to the Koreas’ growing role in the war, Europeans need a new approach. Firstly, this means focusing more energy on tracking and responding to new threats emanating from the intensifying North Korea-Russia partnership. Secondly, it requires the construction of a deeper, counterbalancing security partnership with South Korea.
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