Hal Brands
Since the war in Ukraine started, avoiding escalation — a leap into a larger, more globally consuming conflict — has been US President Joe Biden’s abiding preoccupation. But nearly three years in, the reality is that the war has already sprawled and escalated, just not quite in the ways many observers might expect.
Concerns about escalation have flared in recent weeks, as Biden has considered whether to allow Ukraine to use US weapons, notably ATACMS missiles, to conduct long-range strikes into Russia. (Kyiv has already been using those missiles against Russian targets within occupied Ukraine, while employing its own drones and munitions to strike within Russia.
Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, says that a more lethal, comprehensive strike campaign is crucial to ravaging Russian rear areas, command centers and arms depots, as Ukraine managed to do in spectacular attacks over the last week. US officials and some outside analysts are reportedly skeptical that Washington and its allies can provide enough of the relevant missiles, which are among the scarcest, highest-value tools in their arsenals, to make a major difference.
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