John Nagl and George Topic
An increasing number of highly respected analysts note the tighter coordination among Russia (America’s acute challenge), China (America’s pacing challenge), North Korea, and Iran. These countries share an aversion to the international system organized and maintained by the United States and her allies. They also share a determination to achieve national goals that do not comply with expected international norms about the use of force in international politics to change boundaries and respect for sovereignty. These nations are increasingly sharing natural resources, military equipment, and training; together, they present the prospect of being the most formidable adversary America has faced at least since the collapse of the Soviet Union (the reason some are proclaiming a “new Cold War”) and perhaps since World War II (the reasons others are comparing today to 1938 and arguing that a third world war is imminent).
Today, Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has resulted in the most consequential war in Europe in generations and taught many lessons about the changing character of war. China’s provocations in the Indo-Pacific region threaten US allies in the region and put at risk the regional security balance that has held for decades. While the threats posed individually by Iran and its proxies or North Korea do not rise to the same level as those of Russia or China, they nonetheless can produce significant negative impacts for the United States and our Western allies and increase instability around the world. The threats that are posed by the potential cooperation by several or all of these adversaries are especially dangerous, and as noted below, there are clear indications that to some extent this is already happening. The resources required to manage multiple conflicts, especially protracted wars—and the coordination challenges involved in doing so—could overextend the capabilities of the United States and its allies.
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