Denis Vitchevsky
It’s easy to forget, but nearly two decades have passed since the first documented state-attributed cyberattack. In 2007, Estonia’s infrastructure was crippled, likely by Russia, following a diplomatic dispute. Three years later, malware targeting Iranian centrifuges was discovered and named Stuxnet. While the field of cyber warfare still feels like a new frontier, the children born in the year Estonia was attacked will be enlisting next year—some of them to develop new cyber tools.
When the first instances of cyber warfare surfaced, one of the biggest concerns was the lack of rules or restraints. Apocalyptic predictions warned of poisoned water supplies, rigged elections, remote power plant explosions, derailed trains, missile launches, and more. Fortunately, little of that has come to pass.
There are many reasons why cyber warfare hasn’t wreaked global havoc yet. Some of the initial fears were unfounded—many critical systems aren’t actually connected to the internet, and targeted attacks like the one on Iranian centrifuges are far from easy.
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