Sven Biscop
THE DITHERING WEST
It is shameful that more than two years into the war, the West has still not moved beyond piecemeal decisionmaking about its support for Ukraine. The pattern keeps repeating itself. Every few months, a new weapons system is being considered for transfer to Ukraine. Governments dither for weeks or more, before in the end refraining from delivering the weapons. Or, if they do decide to release them, then in such small quantities that they have no decisive impact. The current debate about long-range missiles is the latest iteration. Meanwhile, the continued supply of replacements and ammunition for previously allocated weapons systems is far from assured. On the contrary, Ukraine can still not count on a regular supply of war matériel.
It is not that the West has been intimated by Russia’s threat of retaliation, not even by the recent announcement of a change in nuclear doctrine (which would allow first use against a non-nuclear state that is supported by a nuclear power). If it had, the West would not have supported Ukraine at all, and the country would no longer exist as an independent state. It is necessary, though, to manage the risk of escalation in any war that directly involves a great power as a combatant. That is why in the Korean War (1950-1953), China’s territory was off limits, even though unlike today in Ukraine, American, European (including Belgian) and other UN troops were directly fighting Chinese troops in North Korea.
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