Russell A. Berman
Relief or Rancorous: How Much of a Threat Will Putin’s Russia Be to NATO After the Ukraine War?: At this point, we do not know how Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine will end, whether with a deserved full restoration of Ukrainian territorial sovereignty or a Russian victory over Kyiv. Perhaps there will be some compromise between those extremes. However, concerning future Russian relations with the West, the even more important question involves how the Russian foreign policy elite, whoever that is, will view the conclusion of the war.
Will territorial victory whet its appetite for more adventures? Will a crushing defeat leave it embittered and plotting for revenge? Or will it decide that it is time to find some realistic accommodation with the West? The prevailing mindset after the conclusion of the war will decide Russia’s future course. Unfortunately, the prospects for Russia remaining a threat in several theaters outweigh the likelihood of partnership.
First and foremost, Russia will remain a major nuclear power, while the West, especially the U.S., has let its strategic arsenal atrophy. Meanwhile, Russia participates in a de facto alliance with nuclear powers China and North Korea, and soon-to-be nuclear Iran. In contrast, America’s nuclear allies, France and England, are caught in a downward spiral of de facto deescalation, as their residual military capacity withers away.
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