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30 October 2024

NATO vs. Russia: How to Ensure Conflict Is Avoided

Thomas E. Graham

After the Ukraine Conflict, Competitive Coexistence is the Best Option: Being a great power lies at the center of Russian national identity. Even when Russia was weak compared to its rivals, Russian leaders continued to believe that their country was a great power, just one temporarily down on its luck. They did what they could to reassert Russia’s prerogatives as a great power on the world stage. This is exactly what Vladimir Putin did after he rose to power a quarter century ago at a time of economic collapse and political disarray in Russia. He has done that in large part by resisting what he sees as a U.S.-led effort to erode the foundations of Russian power.

For that reason, the outcome of Russia’s war against Ukraine, whether it is a win or loss, is unlikely to cause Putin, or his successors, to abandon his strategic ambitions, although he might adjust his tactics. Three developments that could change that assessment: a democratic breakthrough, the breakup of Russia, or its economic collapse. These are all remote possibilities.

Rather, Russia will likely remain a recognizable version of its historical self: authoritarian in domestic political structure, expansionist in foreign-policy impulse, economically and technologically lagging behind the world’s leading powers, yet determined to play the role of a great power. It will retain formidable assets to advance its goals, including one of the world’s largest nuclear arsenals, significant space and cyber capabilities, the world’s largest endowment of natural resources, and a veto-wielding permanent seat on the UN Security Council. As a result, Russia will remain a serious challenge to the United States and NATO.

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