Joel Ostrow
The Paradox of American Leadership and the Future of Europe: European leaders understand that Russia's threat is real. They also understand that what that threat amounts to depends on the United States. You can hear it in their voices, as what that future shall hold is about to become clear. The concern and even fear that the German president expressed during President Biden’s recent visit were dramatic and unprecedented.
Do not be deceived by Russia’s oft-bumbling, incompetent, and even self-destructive military strategy and battlefield tactics, a long-established Russian military tradition this time playing out in Ukraine. The nature of the Russian threat going forward will become crystal clear in just a few weeks, and the two possible futures could not be more different.
One constitutes an existential threat to the democracies and European and global security, and the ascendance of right-wing, authoritarian governments. The other sees a needle popping the balloon of right-wing extremism, and the Russian threat fading. As of this writing, it is even odds which of these alternate futures will prevail.
Near the top of Russian dictator Vladimir V. Putin’s strategy for strengthening Russia, unchanged since he rose to power in 2000, has been to destabilize the democracies and reestablish Russian influence across the North Atlantic. This remains his priority and he has achieved remarkable success in pursuing it.
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