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28 October 2024

Japan's Inevitable Independent Nuclear Deterrent

James Van de Velde

Japan’s (Inevitable, But Unlikely Anytime Soon) Independent Nuclear Dissuasion Force

In response to the current unprecedented Chinese nuclear weapons moderation program[i] and North Korea’s likely attempt to acquire the miniaturization technology to mate its nuclear weapons onto its ballistic missiles and specifically to help deter China from invading Taiwan,[ii] Japan ought to seek -- not more military closeness with the United States -- but more independence. Japan should prepare to go nuclear. It the inevitable future of the United States’ inability to restrain the never-ending truculence of the now totalitarian states of China and North Korea, both of which have decided unambiguously to become global nuclear powers.

Regrettably, of course, Japan is unlikely to go nuclear anytime soon – the inevitable result of once being ruled by an authoritarian, expansionist regime but now is a mature liberal democracy that remains frozen in shame for its past, self-doubt, and global identity crisis. Japan seems still unable to internalize that it is not the country it was in the first half of the 20th century. The Japanese also cannot quite see that the internal and international nonproliferation regime it so assiduously adheres to cynically allows the worst regimes in Asia to go nuclear yet discourages those responsible governments that today adhere to limited, representative government. Still, Japan is likely to go nuclear someday if China and North Korea continue to remain the most totalitarian states in history and dominate Asia. But by that time a Japanese deterrent may make little difference in changing the course of China’s ascendancy and North Korea’s continued prison state.[iii] Becoming more independent sooner is better.

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