Paul Wood
Iran has fallen into the trap set by Israel. It has taken the bait after months of failing to respond to a series of devastating – and humiliating – attacks, which decapitated its Lebanese militia, Hezbollah, and killed the leader of Hamas in Tehran. But the regime may have self-immolated by firing missiles at Israel on Tuesday night, an attack meant to inflict real harm – which inevitably means an Israeli response. Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, may now get the war that some have accused him of wanting all along: a war to destroy the regime in Tehran, fought with American help. The hardliners on both sides are running things. The past week has shown there is no such thing as ‘escalating to de-escalate’ – only escalation. The window for diplomacy is closing and what happens next depends on an American president in the dying days of his administration.
Tuesday night’s attack was only the second time that Tehran has targeted Israel directly. The first was in April, when it fired about 300 missiles and drones. Those were not Iran’s most effective weapons and Israel’s Iron Dome air defences had little trouble intercepting them. It was performative and many saw through the performance. This time was different. There were fewer missiles, about 180 according to the Israelis, but they were among the most advanced that Iran has, the Fattah-1 hypersonic missile that travels at five times the speed of sound. Phone video showed them streaking through the sky, impossibly fast. They are still quite inaccurate and those that weren’t blown up in the air fell on open ground. The only casualty was a Palestinian worker from Gaza, killed by the tail section of a rocket that dropped from the sky as he was crossing a deserted road in the West Bank.
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