Amir Asmar
Israel is conducting extensive attacks against Lebanon—for the sixth time in their shared history—after months of a military back-and-forth with the Lebanese Shia militant group Hezbollah. In late September, Israel assassinated Hezbollah’s Secretary-General, Hasan Nasrallah, as part of a systematic offensive against dozens of Hezbollah military sites in Lebanon, reportedly to “preempt” Hezbollah’s retaliation for Israel’s July assassination of another senior leader, Fouad Shukr. Despite Israeli promises of a limited incursion, the escalation in the military pas-de-deux both have been engaged in since the Gaza war began on October 7 last year is expected to have severe humanitarian consequences in affected areas and beyond and to promote economic and political instability. Apart from the combat, the conflict highlights not only the enduring hostility between Hezbollah and Israel but also the limitations of relying on military force to secure Israel’s long-term position in the region.
Israel’s conflict with Lebanon is unique among those with the Arab states because Lebanon is unique. It has always been fundamentally unstable, having been created as a beachhead for French imperialism, with weak nationalist credentials. Due to its social, political, and military weaknesses, Lebanon suffered the consequences of the Arab-Israeli conflict, specifically Palestinian displacement, more deeply than others. Lebanon’s weak sectarian government and ineffectual military unraveled in 1975 under the pressure of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict being fought on its territory, inaugurating a 16-year civil war. Despite its weakness, however, Lebanon has consistently frustrated Israeli designs to pacify the country.
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