Richard Rousseau
Iran’s attack on Israel on October 1 is undoubtedly the greatest military blow ever dealt to Israel. Unlike Iran’s first direct strike on Israeli territory in April of this year, the salvo of nearly 200 ballistic and hypersonic missiles – even if almost all of them were intercepted – represented a serious and uncalculated escalation, in the knowledge that Iran had given no advance warning, as it did the last time.
Iran described the attack as defensive, targeting only three Israeli military sites, and as a response to Israel’s assassination of militant leaders and its aggression in Lebanon and Gaza. However, this action indicates a shift in Iran’s position and a new willingness to risk an avoidable war in its ongoing efforts to carve out a dominant role in the region.
Israel masterfully eliminated Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, along with numerous top lieutenants, local commanders, and even foot soldiers. It came barely a year after the Hamas attack on southern Israel, considered the most serious threat to the Israeli state in its 75-year existence. This act, however, likely dealt a severe blow to Iran, which no longer adheres to the customary rules of engagement and asymmetric warfare that have prevailed in the Middle East for over thirty years.
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