Hanna Notte and Jim Lamson
Introduction
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the country’s defense relationship with Iran has deepened and widened considerably. Since the summer of 2022, Tehran’s support has been critical for Moscow’s military campaign. As of May 2024, the Russian armed forces had launched at least 4,000 Iranian-designed Shahed drones against Ukraine1 while also benefiting from Iranian ammunition and support for Russia’s domestic drone production. Russia’s military campaign may benefit from Iranian ballistic missiles, though there is no clear evidence of transfers or their use against Ukraine yet. Finally, Iran has promised to share with Russia insights gained during its own experience in trying to circumvent and overcome the effects of Western sanctions.
In return, Russia has stepped up its provision of sensitive military technology and assistance to Iran: In August 2022, Russia launched the Khayyam (Kanopus-V) imaging satellite for Iran, 2 and it has generally stepped up its cooperation on space. In September 2023, it delivered two Yak-130 trainer aircraft to the Iranian Regular Air Force. According to the CIA, Russian technicians have been detected working on Iran’s space launch vehicle (SLV) program and other aspects of Iran’s missile programs. 3 Commenting on this type of support, U.S. officials have raised the alarm over what they believe is an evolution to “a full-fledged defense partnership.”4 Yet, highly coveted items on Iran’s wish list—such as advanced fighter aircraft (Sukhoi Su-35) or advanced air defense systems (S-400)—have not yet been delivered by Russia. Potential reasons for the withholding of such assistance include a Russian caution not to antagonize its Gulf Arab partners, an inability of the Russian defense industry to produce sufficient quantities of high-end technologies for export because of the effects of sanctions, and a desire to retain some leverage amid its growing dependence on Iran.
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