Nicole Grajewski
On October 1, Iran launched its second direct attack on Israel within six months. Code-named Operation True Promise 2, this assault came in the wake of a series of high-profile assassinations by Israel of key figures in Iran’s network of nonstate allies and proxies, in addition to senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders.
The attack, whose name echoes April’s Operation True Promise, represents another attempt by Iran to restore deterrence in its long-standing conflict with Israel that has moved from the shadows into open confrontation. By demonstrating its willingness and capacity for forceful retaliation, Iran aimed to make Israel reassess the potential costs of any aggression toward Iranian interests. However, the effectiveness of this latest operation in achieving these goals remains uncertain.
What ensues from Tehran’s latest escalation may compel a comprehensive reassessment of its national security strategy. Faced with limited options and a multitude of challenges, Tehran may consider leveraging its status as a threshold nuclear state, raising the specter of potential nuclear weaponization as a means to counter Israel’s perceived military superiority.
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