Hans M. Kristensen, Matt Korda, Eliana Johns & Mackenzie Knight
India continues to modernize its nuclear weapons arsenal and operationalize its nascent triad. We estimate that India currently operates eight different nuclear-capable systems: two aircraft, five land-based ballistic missiles, and one sea-based ballistic missile. At least five more systems are in development, most of which are thought to be nearing completion and to be fielded with the armed forces soon.
Research methodology and confidence
The Indian government does not publish numbers about the size of its nuclear weapon stockpile. The analyses and estimates made in the Nuclear Notebook are therefore derived from a combination of open sources: (1) state-originating data (e.g. government statements, declassified documents, budgetary information, military parades, and treaty disclosure data); (2) non-state-originating data (e.g. media reports, think tank analyses, and industry publications); and (3) commercial satellite imagery. Because each of these sources provides different and limited information that is subject to varying degrees of uncertainty, we crosscheck each data point by using multiple sources and supplementing them with private conversations with officials whenever possible.
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