Stephen Herzog
Introduction
When we read the call for proposals for the Finnish National Defence University’s 2024 Russia Seminar, we were immediately struck with a question. During Russia’s war on Ukraine, have new emerging technologies helped the fog of war dissipate, or have they made it thicker? Focusing on Russia and emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs) is essential for understanding today’s strategic context. 1 Russian President Vladimir Putin did, after all, indicate in 2017 his country’s ambition to rule the world through leading developments in artificial intelligence (AI).2 Likewise, in 2018, Putin announced “new exotic weapons” that suggest advances in military applications of AI and the use of autonomous platforms.3 Furthermore, the Kremlin’s investments in nuclear-capable hypersonic missiles were meant to provide capabilities to strike at extreme speeds and overcome existing missile defenses.4 Russia has indeed used several of these EDTs since the beginning of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. But despite Moscow’s interest and investment in disruptive technologies, Russia has not won the war. It continues on, and even Kremlin battlefield successes come with mass casualties among Russian soldiers.
Ideas about new technologies that should theoretically make battlefield outcomes clearer do not just apply to the Russian side. Ukraine has spent considerable resources on whole-of-society efforts to produce small drones that have become ubiquitous in the conflict. This has triggered scores of media and analyst claims about new drone technologies and ways of warfare that revolutionize battlefields, have game-changing effects, and even fundamentally alter the nature of war. However, Kyiv is also remarkably far away from achieving anything resembling meaningful victory in the conflict.
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