Burcu Ozcelik
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched 180 missiles in “Operation True Promise II” in retaliation for recent Israeli attacks that killed the leaders of the Hezbollah and Hamas militant groups, as well as a senior IRGC commander. Iran claims to have carried out the operation in line with the “legitimate right of self-defense under the United Nations Charter.”
Launching a direct attack against Israel for assassinations carried out against leaders of Iran-linked militia is an admission of the obvious. Iran wants its “axis of resistance” to hold. A pillar of its forward defense strategy in the Middle East, the network of proxy groups provides strategic depth and access to sanctions-busting trade routes across Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria. The Iranian claim to the right of “self-defense” shows that the IRGC and Supreme Leader Khamenei consider its regional arc of armed non-state actors as part of their core security interests. The intention of the strike was likely to reassure a battered Hezbollah of Tehran’s support. Nonetheless, Hezbollah’s status in Tehran’s eyes has diminished from core asset to liability. Moreover, Iran’s missile strikes have made it more vulnerable to Israeli counterattacks, which are likely to be more substantial in scale and impact than the April exchange.
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