Deterring Dictators: Whose Foreign Policy Will Stand Up to China, Russia, and Iran?

G. E. Butler

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Introduction

As the election draws near, getting a better sense of the effectiveness of the next President’s foreign policy should be scrutinized and considered as part of each voter’s ballot calculus. The foreign policy analysis published by Strategy Central over the past three weeks, along with selected deterrence articles, was used to compare policy and possible success at deterring China, Russia, and Iran. We used AI to compare and judge each policy. The conclusion was a surprise.

In comparing the foreign policies of Donald Trump, Joe Biden, and Kamala Harris to determine whose approach would most effectively restore the United States' deterrence capabilities against authoritarian rivals such as China, Russia, and Iran, we must first understand the context in which each policy was crafted. The U.S. today faces a deteriorating global order, one increasingly shaped by authoritarian regimes that challenge the norms of international relations with little repercussions. These regimes exploit gaps in international rules and capitalize on weakened U.S. deterrence. With that backdrop, we can now compare the respective foreign policies of Trump, Biden, and Harris and judge their relative effectiveness in confronting these challenges.