David P. Goldman
Israel cannot “win” the Gaza war, that is, eradicate Hamas and impose a stable and satisfactory political settlement on the territory, because its American alliance makes victory unattainable. The Biden Administration provided a $14 billion supplemental aid package for Israel, but it also withheld ammunition shipments and twisted Israel’s arm to accept ceasefires that effectively nullify its efforts to extirpate Hamas from Gaza. It has countenanced a vast increase in Iran’s oil exports, indirectly strengthening Hezbollah and other Iranian auxiliaries. Most of all, Washington promoted Qatar’s role as “mediator” while Qatar continues to host Hamas leaders, including individuals under U.S. indictment as terrorists.
The new Cold War with China and Russia constrains Israel’s leverage over Iran. As long as China continues to buy Iran’s oil and sell it industrial goods, there is little that the West can do to undermine it. Russia’s military cooperation with Iran, although constrained by the exigency of the Ukraine war, limits Western maneuvering room. Most of all, Israel faces the decline of American influence in the region and the growing influence of its competitors.
Israel faces internal as well as external obstacles to victory. The Israeli army neglected the training of Israel’s reservists; according to media reports, the average number of days served by Israeli reservists fell to only 2 million a year in 2022, down from an average of 10 million in the 1990s. Only 120,000 of the country’s 490,000 reserves spent more than 20 days a year on duty in 2022. Israel’s military leaders concentrated on high-tech weaponry and special forces rather than infantry, partly due to advice from their U.S. counterparts. In consequences, the Gaza campaign has been constrained by shortages of manpower and training issues.
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