China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is currently ranked as the third most powerful military in the world, behind only the United States and Russia. Its naval arm, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLA Navy), is actually larger than the US Navy, currently consisting of an active duty battle force of around 370 platforms. Moreover, that number is a likely underestimate since it does not include smaller-scale vessels that can be equipped with anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs) in a hypothetical conflict near Taiwan; for example, the Type 022 (Houbei Class) patrol boats that pose a credible risk to blue water platforms while not being able to traverse the open oceans themselves. Nor does it include the irregular forces that could be brought to bear in any conflict in China’s littoral waters, such as the People’s Armed Forces Maritime Militia (PAFMM).
How the PLA Navy continues to expand over the short- and medium-term is a matter of mounting concern for US policymakers and military strategists. China’s ongoing shipbuilding and force modernization programs expect to grow the PLA Navy to 395 ships by 2025, and 435 ships by 2030. In contrast, the US Navy was fielding 296 battle ships as of August 2024, and US efforts to catch up are complicated by the yawning gap in shipbuilding capacity between China and the United States. Just how big is this gap? According to a leaked US Navy briefing, China has a domestic shipbuilding capacity 232 times greater than the United States.
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