Daniel Byman
Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and other top commanders in recent weeks is part of a dramatic shift in the country’s approach to the Lebanese militant group. Its longtime strategy of trying to deter Hezbollah has given way to something else: a relentless bombing campaign aimed at weakening the group and forcing it to sue for peace on Israel’s terms due to incapacity.
In so doing, Israel probably hopes that Hezbollah will agree to remove its fighters from the Israeli border area and then accept a broader cease-fire, enabling Israeli to return its 60,000 or so displaced citizens to their homes in the north of the country. This is a high-risk shift. Hezbollah has been hit hard, and it is possible that it may make major concessions to Israel, at least in the short term, or that its response is anemic due to Israel’s decimation of its ranks. Getting terrorist or militant groups to bend the knee is difficult, however, and even weaker groups can still lash out hard, as Israel itself has learned from experience. In the past, however, Hezbollah has shown itself to be strong and determined, both in fighting Israel directly and in using international terrorism to hit back outside the theater—both done with the support of its Iranian patron.
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