Michael Mieses, Noelle Kerr & Nakissa Jahanbani
In late June and early July, Iranian hackers stole information from Donald Trump’s presidential campaign and sent it to Biden campaign officials, according to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the FBI, and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA). This was far from a one-off. Recently, Tehran has increased its asymmetrical advantage by harnessing cyber capabilities through the internet and social media, a trend that extends back even further. Over the past few decades, Iran has been quietly building its cyber capability in the shadow of great powers.
These recent activities took place after sustained Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea and attacks on U.S.-backed installations in Iraq and Syria. Iran’s cyber activities are part of a broader hybrid strategy combining conventional military power, economic leverage, and the strategic use of proxies. While there is considerable information about Iranian offline proxies, its cyber proxies largely fly under the radar. Though they are less visible than their offline counterparts, cyber proxies are nonetheless a powerful asymmetric tool.
Iran’s multifaceted approach in the cyber domain allows Iran to project power and influence in the Middle East while avoiding direct conventional military confrontations with stronger adversaries. Iran uses cyber operations to complement its broader geopolitical strategies, often employing cyber espionage and sabotage to gain strategic advantages or to retaliate against sanctions and military threats. As Iran increasingly incorporates AI technologies into its cyber operations, the likelihood of more disruptive and damaging activities escalates, presenting a substantial challenge not only to regional stability but also to global security.
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