George Friedman
There are two major wars being fought. One, between Ukraine and Russia, has been raging for more than two and a half years but has been roughly confined to Ukraine. The other, between Israel and Hamas, has been ongoing for almost a year but is expanding dramatically. Combat recently intensified northward into Lebanon.
It is in the nature of war to grow. When two forces clash, static warfare often shifts to maneuver warfare as each side seeks to flank the enemy and stretch its defenses to their breaking point. As wars progress, flank attacks and large-scale offensives become more likely, increasing the demand for supplies. What began as a limited engagement grows in both scale and definition. The logic of war takes hold. Maneuvering increases, supply lines lengthen and reveal vulnerabilities, and maps of the conflict are redrawn, leading to geographic expansion.
The war in Ukraine has been relatively contained thus far, largely limited to the area between Russia’s assault and Ukraine’s evolving defense. However, the second war, which began last October when Hamas attacked Israel, has been transformed by Israel’s move to attack Hezbollah in Lebanon. This will not be a conventional, infantry-led conflict with defined lines of engagement. It will continue as it began: with Israel trying to destroy the enemy’s command structure, while Hezbollah and Hamas attempt to put the Israeli population at risk. In this conflict, the pursuit of advantage and surprise will encourage expansion – a particularly acute risk given the war’s proximity to Ukraine.
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