Jonathan Panikoff
In February 1992, Israel killed the then-Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Abbas al-Musawi, who had led the group for less than a year before his death. Musawi was replaced by Hassan Nasrallah, a religious and political protégé of Musawi’s. In contrast to his mentor’s rather short tenure, Nasrallah has been at the helm of the terrorist organization for more than thirty-two years before his death on Friday. So ingrained was his leadership of the group that Hezbollah today is very much an organization designed to operate as a direct extension of Nasrallah himself.
Terrorists are not equal. Nasrallah was not Osama bin Laden, hiding in caves and at a rural compound. Nor is Hezbollah an isolated radical terrorist group; it’s a direct part of Lebanon’s society and government—to the dismay of many of the Lebanese people and the Arab world. Nasrallah was not just leader of one of the world’s most lethal and dangerous terrorist organizations, but a political figure with significant religious, financial, and governing responsibilities.
What now? Nasrallah’s death promises to fundamentally change politics in Lebanon, potentially the group’s future as Iran’s most critical ally in the region, and how Israel views the group. His death creates three interrelated quandaries—for Hezbollah, Iran, and Israel—that will determine if the region erupts in conflict and shape what it looks like for years to come.
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