Andreas Umland
Beijing’s and other non-Western capitals’ calls for a ceasefire and negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv have acquired a new meaning after the Ukrainian occupation of western Russian lands. A Chinese or other non-Western push for Russo-Ukrainian accommodation could now lead to meaningful peace talks.
Ukraine’s unexpectedly successful and deep incursion into Russian territory on August 6, 2024, has changed the conversation about the Russo-Ukrainian War. The most important international impact that the Ukrainian surprise action may eventually have is on officially neutral non-Western countries such as China, India, or Brazil. The West was and will be supportive of Ukraine—irrespective of the Kursk operation and its outcome. In contrast, a prolonged Ukrainian occupation of legitimate Russian state territory introduces a new dimension into non-Western approaches to the war.
If Moscow does not reverse the Ukrainian offensive soon and fully, it will change Kyiv’s position and leverage in hypothetical negotiations, which many third actors have officially promoted since the war started in 2014. So far, Kyiv has had to rely solely on moral and legal arguments referring to the rules-based world order in its communication with foreign partners. Now, in contrast, a less normatively driven, more transactional, and more straightforward “land-for-land” deal between Russia and Ukraine has become theoretically feasible.
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