Paul Goble
The Armenian-Azerbaijani dispute has always been about more than Karabakh. It has also been about transit routes. Now that Baku has succeeded in restoring control over Karabakh, it is now focusing on the Armenian region between the two non-contiguous parts of Azerbaijan, which Armenians call Syunik oblast and the Azerbaijanis and many others call Zangezur. Addressing this problem is far more difficult than dealing with Karabakh because it involves not just Baku and Yerevan but all outside powers—including Russia, Iran, Türkiye, China, and the West—whose agendas are generally at odds in the region and many of whom are internally conflicted as well. As a result, achieving any peace agreement between Baku and Yerevan remains problematic. This was underscored in early August when the two sides agreed to try to sign such an accord but only by agreeing not to address the central issue of transit corridors in the agreement (TRT Russian, August 8). Unless solutions on such routes are reached, Azerbaijan may well decide to force its goals given the success in Karabakh and the normalization of war as a result of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s expanded invasion of Ukraine (see EDM, October 3, 2023). Türkiye would almost certainly support such an attempt. It would likely prompt Russia and Iran, however, to react by sending their forces to the region—an intervention that could trigger a broader war.
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