Zalmay Khalilzad
There are four reasons why the coming year could be the year the Ukraine war ends—and plenty of reasons why it might continue for the foreseeable future. Principal among these is the huge gap between Putin and Zelensky on potential terms. The factors favoring an end to the war appear to be gaining. What are these factors?
First, there is Ukraine’s brilliant and bold military move into Russia in the Kursk region. In the short term, it has been very impactful, bringing the war home to Russia and demonstrating that Russia is vulnerable. This development has likely made Putin’s continued war more controversial among Russians. The attack against Russia has also been a morale booster in Ukraine. During much of 2024, the Ukrainians were struggling militarily and suffering economically, resulting in waning support for the war. The attack also slowed the decline in Western political support for the war in Ukraine. It has imposed additional military and reputational costs on Russia. And if the occupation of Russian territory can be sustained, this can be a bargaining chip in any negotiations about the end of the war.
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