Ehud Eilam
The sophisticated attack on Hezbollah this week in which Israel is suspected of detonating pagers carried by Hezbollah members could bring a serious escalation in the attrition war between the two sides that started following the Hamas terror strike on Oct. 7, 2023.
Israel is fighting a war on several fronts, mainly against Hamas in Gaza but also Hezbollah in Lebanon, to reestablish the deterrence that failed it last year. The terrorist organization has fired rockets, missiles and attack drones into Israel since the Hamas rampage, resulting in some 60,000 Israelis currently evacuated from their homes in the northern part of the country.
What is occurring now between Israel and Hezbollah, and by extension its patron Iran, is a type of attrition war, in which both sides are trying to wear down the other, though without the commitment of large numbers of forces.
Several reasons to avoid a major war
One of the options Israel is weighing is ending the fight by conducting a large-scale war in Lebanon. But this would be a huge gamble and a grave mistake, for several reasons.
First, Hezbollah is the strongest non-state actor in the Middle East. The Israel Defense Force (IDF) is much more powerful than Hezbollah — Hezbollah does not have an air force, armor corps, heavy artillery or navy. However, Hezbollah has up to 200,000 missiles, rockets and drones that can cover all of Israel.
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