27 September 2024

Was Ukraine’s Kursk Incursion A Risk Worth Taking? – Analysis

Luke Coffey

It has now been several weeks since Ukrainian forces crossed into Russia’s Kursk Oblast. This move caught many by surprise, including Russia and Ukraine’s allies in the West. It marked the first time in more than 80 years that Russian territory had fallen under the control of an outside power. After initially allocating about 1,000 troops and dozens of armored vehicles for the operation, it is estimated that Ukraine now has several thousand troops and hundreds of armored vehicles operating in Kursk.

This is not the first time that forces aligned with Ukraine have entered the territory of the Russian Federation. In May 2023 and again earlier this year, anti-Putin Russian forces from the Freedom of Russia Legion and the Russian Volunteer Corps entered Russia’s Belgorod Oblast and captured a few border towns. However, it is now clear that Ukraine’s current operation in neighboring Kursk Oblast is different.

Earlier incursions into Russian territory relied on ethnic Russian units and, if Ukrainian military units played a role, it was not made public and was likely minimal. This time, the operation in Kursk Oblast is predominantly being carried out by regular Ukrainian units. Ukrainian flags are being hoisted over municipal buildings and videos on social media show Ukrainian troops engaging with the local population and providing humanitarian support. Many videos show troops speaking in Ukrainian to the local Russian inhabitants, as this region has close cultural ties to Ukraine. Interestingly, the current front lines in Kursk are approximately in the same location as the border between the short-lived Ukrainian People’s Republic and the Bolsheviks in 1918.

No comments: