Piotr Śledź
Ukrainian Kursk Offensive – Not a Turning Point but Still a Major Upheaval:
The 1995 Budyonnovsk raid, amid the pursued Russian offensive in Chechnya, turned the course of the First Chechen War and underpinned Russia’s subsequent defeat. The current Kursk offensive by Ukraine will presumably not be equally decisive but one cannot ignore the operational and strategic advantages it has already brought. For the first time since last year’s failed counteroffensive, Ukraine took the initiative on the ground. If sustained, this operation can improve Ukraine’s standing against the aggressor.
Among Russia’s slow but steady advances in the Donbas Oblast, Ukrainian forces managed to repel the offensive in the Kharkiv region and make a major incursion into the Kursk Oblast. This warzone has been extended onto Russian soil. Despite some persistent risks for Ukraine, the overall push seems to have been a game-changer.
This has dramatically increased the war costs for Russia since they were forced to evacuate the local civilians, withdraw 30,000 troops already inside Ukraine, and mobilize more conscripts for defensive purposes only. This could also lead to the release of more Ukrainian prisoners of war, as almost 600 Russians have been captured.
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