Steven Pifer
Ukrainian forces crossed into Russia’s Kursk oblast on August 6. More than three weeks later, the Ukrainians occupy some 500 square miles of Russian territory. Whether the incursion will have a strategic impact on the overall course of the war remains uncertain. However, it represents a welcome near-term success for Kyiv.
The ground war between Russia and Ukraine in 2024 has been characterized largely by the Russian army grinding out slow and costly gains, primarily in Donbas. In February, the Russians captured Avdiivka, a town of limited strategic import for which thousands of Russian soldiers paid with their lives. The Russian army has pressed on, seeking to capture the more important city of Pokrovsk. While Pokrovsk is threatened, it is not apparent that the Russians can make a breakthrough.
With the Russian focus on Donbas, the Ukrainian invasion of Kursk caught the Russian army flat-footed. Experienced Ukrainian units had little trouble crossing the border, which was largely defended by poorly-trained Russian conscripts. The Ukrainians used drones to wreak havoc on early Russian reinforcements. While the Ukrainians’ progress slowed and Russian resistance stiffened, Kyiv says it controls 100 towns and settlements in Kursk.
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