Nigel Gould-Davies
In recent weeks the United States and United Kingdom signalled, very publicly, that they would lift restrictions on Ukraine’s use of Western precision missiles. Doing so would allow Kyiv to strike targets inside Russia. But no change of policy followed UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s 13 September visit to the White House to discuss this issue. This clumsy episode offers two lessons in how the West should, and should not, use diplomacy to serve its strategy.
The first lesson is that public indecision cedes the initiative. Russian President Vladimir Putin has been able to both prepare for, and try to prevent, a decision. Militarily, he has protected assets by moving them beyond the range of Western missiles. Politically, he is threatening severe escalation if the West goes ahead. Putin has every incentive to issue such threats. If his bluff is called, this only adds to a long list of empty threats he has made since Russia's February 2022 invasion. But if it succeeds – as it seems, for now, to have done – it shows to Russia and the world that the West’s fear of war can be manipulated to impose restraint.
Some will say this begs the question: is Putin bluffing, or will he really consider Russia to be at war with the West if Ukraine is allowed to use Western weapons as it wishes? This fear should be addressed, not dismissed. But it should not be exaggerated. For there are strong reasons to believe that Putin’s threat is not credible.
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