Gary Anderson
When Ukraine began its incursion into Russian territory in August, I hoped that it signaled a strategic shift to an offensive maneuver warfare vice accepting the Russian diktat of an attritional war on the part of both antagonists. I hope that is still the case. If it is, the Ukrainians are looking for the next weak spot along the front, not just in eastern Ukraine, but along its extensive border with the Russian homeland. One of the prime tenets of maneuver warfare is that the enemy cannot be strong everywhere, and that it is best to strike at weak spots (gaps). I am hoping that Kyiv is looking for the next big gap.
Since the Kursk incursion began, the Russians have doubled down in their offensive in the Donbass and rushed reinforcements to the Kursk region. Despite, the gloom of some number crunchers, the Russian supply of manpower is not unlimited. Putin is limited by domestic constraints from issuing a general draft call-up and there are only so many prisoners that can be released to swell Russian ranks. There are weak spots like Kursk elsewhere. The art in operational art is finding them and exploiting them.
The Ukrainians have shown a natural inclination for maneuver warfare at the tactical level and have occasionally at the operational level. It remains to be seen if they can do it at the strategic level of war. By this time, the Ukrainians realize that the war will eventually have to be resolved at the bargaining table, and the more land -particularly Russian- that they have when talks begin, the better off they are. These kinds of pinprick incursions -particularly those into Russian territory- place the Moscow's troops in a "whack a mole" situation.
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