Paul Goble
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s expanded invasion of Ukraine has rapidly transformed into a war of attrition. Looming behind Moscow’s problems in recruiting enough men to fight and providing them with sufficient weapons is a bigger issue: Russia is running out of essential reserves left over from Soviet times. These reserves include natural resources developed before 1991, transportation infrastructure needed to access and exploit deposits, and a power grid that has not been expanded sufficiently since the Soviet period to support new finds or even fully realize old ones. Experts have talked about these problems for years. Now, these three problems have grown to the point that ministers and other senior officials are warning of real dangers ahead, even as Putin continues to offer upbeat talk about his plans for major projects in all three directions. Such projects are unlikely to be fully funded or ever completed so long as his war against Ukraine continues. (For an example of projects announced with much pomp that are delayed or never completed, see The Barents Observer, December 9, 2021). As the war wages on, the Kremlin leader is likely to be confronted with a serious deterioration in Russian capacities. He may be reduced to asking Beijing for help. China could provide the much-needed assistance, but it will come at a price: Moscow will have to make concessions that will render Russia Beijing’s junior partner, an arrangement that many Russians will find highly offensive (see EDM, June 16, 2022). The dwindling Soviet reserves may become an important foundation for more protests against Putin’s war in Ukraine, especially as senior members of the Russian government are actively discussing these problems (TASS, September 11).
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