Richard Haass
Mention ‘proliferation’ and most people will assume that you are talking about the spread of nuclear weapons. For good reason. Nine countries—China, France, India, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, the United States and the Britain—possess them. But many more have the ability and conceivably the motive to produce them. There is also the danger that terrorist groups could obtain one or more of these weapons, enabling them to inflict horrific damage.
This sort of proliferation is often described as ‘horizontal’. The biggest immediate focus remains Iran, which has dramatically reduced the time it would require to develop one or more nuclear devices. An Iran with nuclear weapons might use them. Even if not, it might calculate that it could safely coerce or attack Israel or one or more of its Arab neighbours directly, or thorough one of its proxies, with non-nuclear, conventional weapons.
A nuclear-armed Iran would likely trigger a regional arms race. Several of its neighbours, particularly Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey, might well develop or acquire nuclear weapons of their own. Such a dynamic would further destabilise the world’s most troubled and volatile region.
No comments:
Post a Comment