Mark N. Katz
There have been widely differing assessments of the impact of Kyiv’s surprise military offensive, resulting in Ukrainian forces occupying territory inside the Kursk region, which Russian forces there did little to resist.
Some see it as a great triumph for Kyiv, which has humiliated Putin, bolstered Ukrainian morale, and given Kyiv a bargaining chip for seeking Russian withdrawal from internationally recognized Ukrainian territory now occupied by Putin’s forces. The large number of Russian soldiers who were captured by or just surrendered to Ukraine also gives Kyiv leverage for seeking the return of Ukrainian soldiers captured by Russia.
Others, however, see the Ukrainian occupation of Russian territory in the Kursk region as a forlorn hope since it has not stopped Russia’s grinding advance against Kyiv’s forces inside Ukraine. They point out that Kyiv’s Kursk offensive has taken forces away from the ranks of those Ukrainian forces defending against Russia’s advance in Donetsk.
How will this situation play out? It seems highly likely that if Russia’s advance in eastern Ukraine continues, then Kyiv will have to redeploy its forces now in Kursk back to eastern Ukraine. A Ukrainian push to occupy even more Russian territory, even if successful, would take more Ukrainian troops away from eastern Ukraine, thus facilitating Putin’s advance there. None of this bodes well for the Ukrainian position.
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